Iran Speaks Conflict: Understanding the Case of Roxana Saberi

NPR's Jacki Lyden spoke with Hadi Ghaemi of the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. Ghaemi, an Iranian dissident who has spent the last 25 years in the United States, says Iran doesn't know how to respond to the new, open hand of the Obama administration, and that hard-line elements within the country have seized on the case of Roxana Saberi to sow conflict with the U.S.

Ghaemi has studied human rights and Iranian foreign policy since he left Iran. He says he's surprised by the ruling.

The verdict was much, much harsher than anything similar to it. The surprise here is that Roxana is neither an activist, she has not been involved in anything that could domestically be considered a threat to Iranian government, and for Iranian leadership to use her this way, it only sends the message that she has become the tool of Iranian foreign policy at the moment. Now what is the message and use of that tool is something that there are a couple of different possibilities.

Ghaemi thinks the appeals process presents a possible glimmer of hope, and that Iran actually could review the case very quickly and render a different decision via appeal. Certainly, this is what he hopes will happen. At the same time, however, Ghaemi considers Saberi very much a pawn in a broader--and more troubling--diplomatic picture, which outcome is none too clear.

She's being used by hard-line elements in Iran to torpedo, uh, possible improvements of relations with the United States. I think the Iranian leadership is very confused and insecure at the initiatives that President Obama has presented toward Iran. So I think by creating this crisis they do get the opportunity to perhaps make the U.S. policies return to more confrontational basis.

Ghaemi's assessment is hardly reassuring. But if his take on the internal politics is correct, then I'd go so far as to say that President Obama's approach to Iran is working. All the more reason NOT to adopt a tone of aggression (as advocated here) which would only play into what appears to be Iran's strategy of choice, haphazard as that strategy may be. If Iran's hard liners are hoping to provoke a hard-line U.S. response, then the last thing the administration should do--and the last thing Saberi needs--is to give that contingent what they want.

Iranian Court Sentences Saberi to 8 Years for Spying

The New York Times tells us that American-Iranian journalist Roxana Saberi has been convicted of spying in an Iranian court and sentenced to 8 years in prison.

Scott Lucas offers food for thought about what propels the case inside Iran. I'm neither informed enough nor imaginative enough to speculate as to what may happen next. Ed Morrissey calls on Obama to drop the folksy charm so far employed toward Iran and get heavy. Morressey's suggestions strike me as Iran's biggest hope. What would be a greater success than provoking empire to come assert ourselves in our most bellicose way?

Right now the Iranians don't have much to stand on but have successfully chipped the American image. I don't think America can stand back and do nothing. But that chip becomes a deep fracture if the U.S. makes empty demands. Our escalation right now will more or less give the Iranian leadership a platform from which to fight. Lucas speculates that, hopefully, the State Department is reaching out to friends who are connected to Iran's decision makers.

No doubt this all becomes political here at home. Silence is unacceptable in the 24-hour news cycle, even on a Saturday. Immediately, expect conservatives to lambaste the administration for doing nothing (no, I don't think the pundits will have learned from last week's pirate escapades) while progressives do much the same. Fortunately, I am encouraged that the administration is sufficiently above the spin on this. I have to believe that the president, his advisers, and the Secretary of State are smart enough to wait until they have the right hand to play. Here's hoping that there is such a thing. And that Roxana Saberi can afford to wait.

World Beat

Over the weekend, pirates provided plenty of fuel for neocons to call for a "coalition of the willing" to invade Somalia. Given that response, I can only guess as to the inevitable chatter points today regarding North Korea's departure from six-party talks and strongly worded statement indicating that the DPRK will resume nuclear development.

Meanwhile, I read precious little from the right regarding the closed-door trial in Iran of U.S.-Iranian citizen Roxana Saberi. Saberi, a prominent journalist whose work has appeared on NPR, the BBC, Fox News, and more, has been held in Tehran since January on charges of spying for the U.S. While I'm not eager to hear more clamor and criticism from the talking heads on how Saberi's incarceration makes Obama weak and America pitiful (see this vid from Kos, via Benen, for the worst of the worst from the right on the topic again of pirates), it would be nice if the plight of a U.S. reporter held under questionable circumstances would draw a little more attention and calls from the once-heralded "compassionate conservatives" for justice to win out.

On second thought, maybe the right's silence is golden. The less Saberi becomes a political chip in this country, the more chance she has of not being (further) played as one in Iran.