Tomorrow the Guelaguetza

Governor Ulises Ruiz, thronged by supporters (and body guards)
at the head of the parade. Oaxaca City, July 21 2007.

After much speculation, the procession to preview the Guelaguetza and those participating in the festivities went off Saturday afternoon as planned. There had been whisperings in town that the procession might be derailed by protests or other demonstrations, but nothing of that nature took place. The governor himself, Ulises Ruiz, stepped out of a white SUV in time to lead the procession from Parque Conzatti to Plaza de Santa Domingo. A loud contingency of supporters chanted "Ulises Ulises! Ulises Ulises!" as the man made his way through the crowd. People thronged the sidewalks around the park to see the parade get started, and except for the appearance of the governor there was little sense of the recent politicization of the Guelaguetza by both sides of the conflict.

The parade route was protected and controlled by police but there was not the heavy presence I expected to see. No officers in riot gear, no squadrons prepared to push people back or make a show of force in the event of possible protests. No doubt these were a mere radio call away.

According to a language teacher I spoke with (not affiliated with the public school teachers) there is talk that on Monday morning teachers will block the roads to the Cerro del Fortin in an effort to stop the Guelaguetza. (See here for background on the conflict.) The amphitheater on the hillside is already heavily guarded, but as all roads to the amphitheater lead uphill the teachers only need to pick points between the city and the campus to stage their protests. If the teachers succeed in erecting barricades in the road overnight or in the early morning, this will almost certainly draw police down from their posts at the gates of the Cerro del Fortin to remove the demonstrators and clear roadblocks. Once this happens it is easy to surmise that there will be clashes, violence, injuries and arrests.

It appears to me that part of the problem the teachers face right now is that even if they are resolved to protest peacefully there are many people drawn to the demonstrations with the purpose of inciting violence. These are the anarchists, mostly young men, who may only have minimal interest in issues raised by the teachers or even by APPO, the popular arm of the people's movement, but simply want to act out against what is widely seen as a repressive government. In many cases they may be the first to spraypaint public property, throw rocks or Molotov cocktails, or otherwise challenge the domestic order. Neither the teachers nor APPO seem able to control these fringe elements attracted to the excitement, and, by some accounts, may even support such divisive actions. There appears to be a crisis of leadership on all sides (Nancy Davies has more on this here). The governor is widely seen as repressive and corrupt; APPO leaders and Section XXII (the teachers' union heavily involved in last year's unrest) leaders may be in constant flux as the government makes arrests, rounds people up, intimidates and generally sows disorganization within the organizations.

It is difficult to get a clear sense of what is going on here.

Tags: Guelaguetza, Oaxaca, Governor Ulises Ruiz Ortiz, APPO, Section XXII