Winning High?

When I first read this Sullivan post I thought "Hey, that's a fair question." Can Obama deliver a knockout blow? Sure, he stands tall when Hillary & Co batter him over the head a few dozen times, but is it good campaign strategy to hope she just paints herself into a corner?

Then I read more carefully, and I realized that Sullivan merely poses the question so that he can beg Obama not to go in for the kill, and then he takes it one step farther.

I just hope he doesn't go negative with McCain. A key to his appeal is his positive reason, which would be revealed as mere cunning if it did not apply to running against Republicans as well.

Emphasis mine. I think this is about right. If Obama wins the nomination, can he--will he--manage not merely to remain above the fray, but to elevate the contest as well, in a general election?

In fairness to the Obama campaign, it probably will be enough if he simply remains above the fray and gets voted in without going ugly (as opposed to asking one man to elevate the contest as well, especially if his opponent isn't willing to do so). In and of itself, that would be a strong statement about the American voters' appetite for change. The question nobody seems to be able to answer is, is that scenario possible?

Smooth

I liked everything Obama said yesterday. And I'm pretty well disposed by now to feel a reactionary dislike to almost everything coming out of the Clinton campaign machine the past several--and no doubt for the next several--weeks.

That said, Clinton sounds pretty darn good in this clip.

Why He Can Win

UPDATE: Responding to comments about last night's debate, and a question about how he'll respond to the Republican smear machine in the general election, Obama offered this:

“That was the rollout of the Republican campaign against me in November. It happened just a little bit early, but that is what they will do,” Mr. Obama said. “They will try to focus on all these issues that don’t have anything to do with how you are paying your bills at the end of the month. There’s no doubt that I will have to respond sharply and crisply, then pivot to talk about what exactly are we going to do for the economy and what are we going to do about the war in Iraq.”

Until the nominating fight ends, Mr. Obama said, he is “trying to show some restraint.” He added, “I won’t have as much restraint with the Republicans."

This is part of Obama's effectiveness. He doesn't have to say "Clinton went over the top." All he has to do is suggest that he's holding back a little, demonstrating the new politics he says he can bring to Washington, and, all the while, doing his share not to shred the Democratic party in the process.

All that aside, it's not enough to say you're taking the high road and leave it at that. You've got to project that you're taking the high road, and Obama does. If he looked worn and wearied last night, he sure looked a whole lot more rejuvenated today. That, I think, stands to carry the message far.
__________

If electability is indeed the issue, then I think Obama made the right answers today. This is why he can win.

Against the Ropes?

"For Clinton, Bid Hinges on Texas and Ohio." Not a headline I expected to read. Is this true? Is this the media framing the race in terms that are media friendly? Does Hillary Clinton slip far enough behind in the delegate count if she doesn't show up well today that her bid truly hinges on two states?

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.

Wow. Could be interesting to see what the day brings. My favorite part, though? Speaking privately in order to speak plainly. A certain poetry, that.

Guesses and Predictions on the Straight Talk Express

A couple days ago I posted that I don't believe conservatives will stay home this November rather than vote for John McCain. My thinking is that in the end, the worst Republican candidate is still a better choice for president, to the minds of conservative voters, than the best (read "least offensive") Democratic candidate.

Kevin Drum disagrees. Of last night's caucus results Kevin remarks:

Bottom line: this has been a disastrous night for McCain. Sure, he'll win the nomination eventually, but he looks like a goner in the general election. He's either going to be forced to spend so much time pandering to pissed-off conservatives that he loses the independent vote, or else he's going to beg for independents and wake up on November 5th to find out that half his base decided to stay home rather than vote for him.

Not sure what I think about that, but it's well put and Kevin makes the strong point that, one way or another, McCain is going to lose one group of voters to appeal to another. I have to assume that knowing who he will run against will answer the question of which group will be the disenchanted ones.

Warning: Guesswork and extreme oversimplification ahead. Okay. You've been warned.

If he's trying to beat Obama, then I figure McCain doesn't sweat the independent vote. Not sure why, I just have it in mind that independents and undecideds, and maybe a handful of disgruntled Republicans, too, break for the Democrat in that race. (Deep down we are still an idealistic and optimistic nation. Hope, peace, and prosperity have not gone out of fashion.) In which case McCain woos the conservatives, makes all manner of obscene promises, and descends to the grossest levels of pandering, hoping for a wave of political support (big money) from his party to carry him home to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Plus he prays for a stream of really good press. And it will have to be extremely good press, for the simple reason that every time the papers run Obama's good natured smile--or his pensive "foreign policy face"--next to McCain's temperamental and strangely asymmetrical mug, Americans, being the creatures we are, will find ourselves drawn to the more handsome of the two.

Against Hillary Clinton I foresee a different strategy. McCain doesn't sweat the conservative vote, counting on "Billary" to motivate (should I say "provoke"?) the base for him. Instead he relentlessly tries to make the case to independents, undecideds, and anti-Clinton Democrats that he is the moderate stalwart this country needs right now to restore credibility both at home and abroad. And, since the economy will likely still be in a tailspin as he pushes his campaign toward the finish line--and, incidentally, the holiday season--he'll remind taxpayers they'll be forfeiting significantly more money in taxes each year under a President Clinton than a President McCain.*

The tricky part, regardless of who comes away with the Democratic nomination, is that McCain has to run both these campaign strategies simultaneously until the Democratic nominee becomes clear. In this I agree with Kevin completely:

This is a mighty narrow tightrope he's walking, and it looks like he's going to be fighting gale-force crosswinds the whole way.

The way things are going now, it looks to be a very long summer of mixed messages and minced words on the Straight Talk Express.

*I'd love to offer some insight on how McCain situates the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the ongoing War on Terror (which phrase has been dialed down of late in the national colloquy), in his campaign, but this is far too slippery for this amateur political observer.