Palin in Larimer, El Paso & Mesa Counties

I met a protester yesterday who was removed from the Sarah Palin appearance in Loveland. Basically, he was invited off the road and had to watch from a little further away, probably on account of his t-shirt picturing McCain and Bush in that awkward embrace . Nothing particularly newsworthy there.

What did strike me about the tale was that Palin campaigned in Loveland. And Colorado Springs. And Grand Junction. I'm no whiz on Colorado math, but I'm betting those are counties the McCain campaign had hoped to make Obama stretch for, not the other way around. Seriously? Grand Junction? In the final two weeks of the race?

When the Denver Post headline reads "Palin visit energizes Colorado supporters," you can practically hear the groan go up from the McCain camp. They don't need to energize supporters, they need to turn new votes red. And that means reaching undecideds, if there are still any left. At the height of my optimism about this election I'm not sure I believed McCain would be defending the Western Slope in the final two weeks of the campaign.

McCain Ceding Colorado?

No time to comment, but don't miss this CNN Ticker post.

Denver Post Endorses Musgrave

I try to keep it professional around here, but are you fucking kidding me? "Marilyn Version 2.1"? That's weak sauce. In referencing Musgrave's supposed, newfound commitment to the day-to-day concerns of Yuma County and other "local issues," the Post seems to have willfully forgotten Musgrave's 6 year history of ignoring local needs to wage a one woman culture war from the comfy environs of her congressional office.

A chief example the Post cites to indicate Musgrave's redoubled efforts to help Coloradans is her 2005 vote to support expanded US exports under CAFTA. I find the Post's tune here highly bizarre, since that 2005 vote was not enough to soften the Post's scathing critique of Musgrave's tenure in time for the last congressional election.

Here's what the Post said about Musgrave in 2006, when the paper endorsed Angie Paccione:

In Congress, Musgrave has pursued an extreme agenda and has offered all-too-predictable support for the president on issues ranging from restrictions on embryonic stem cell research to tax and war policy. Her largest burden, though, is that she simply hasn't much to show for her four years in Congress.

The Post can now cite an outdated vote and two politically expedient achievements, and that's enough to woo the paper? Well I got a bottle of Boone's and a coupon for free custard at Good Times if the Post is gonna be such a cheap date.

As Goes Colorado . . . or Mighigan . . . or New Hampshire?

Yesterday, Nate Silver awarded Colorado "Most Important State" status in the presidential election. Meaning that, without CO, Obama would have a hard time putting together the votes needed to reach an electoral win.

Today, E.J. Dionne says "If he carries Michigan, many routes to victory are open for Barack Obama. Without Michigan, he's got a big problem."

I think both of these guys are pretty adroit analysts. Silver's assessment is the result of current polling information gathered across the country. That assessment is, no doubt, subject to change based on the sensitivities of the various polling models and Silver's system for interpreting 20-30 poll results and basing projections on the aggregate. Dionne's assessment is, I believe, the result of watching, listening, and guessing as to the possible challenges faced in MI and in the nation. In either case, the outcome is incredibly important.

According to a Campaign for Change spokesperson I heard speak at the opening of a new office in our neighborhood Wednesday night, Coloradans have knocked on more doors on behalf of the candidate, registering voters and asking questions about the issues, than any other state in the nation. Probably, that bodes well. More doors knocked on translates to more new voter registrations, more voter registration updates, and more mail-in ballot applications to relieve confusion and congestion at the polls.

As one of those canvassers, however, I've discovered that the walk lists aren't necessarily up to date from week to week. I've unwittingly knocked on a handful of doors that have already been knocked on. Unless a canvasser can provide new information, or can follow up on a specific question or concern that previous canvassers could not address, this is a pretty off-putting experience for the resident on the other side of the door. A simple visit can sway an undecided voter in favor of a candidate. Repeated simple visits, especially at the dinner hour, and especially by equally eager door knockers who aren't equipped with new information, can push that undecided voter the other way out of sheer annoyance and exasperation. The impression is of a disorganized campaign. And that does not reflect well on the candidate.

It remains to be seen how accurate the metric is regarding number of doors knocked on. If the campaign is unwittingly double counting, that's bad. On the other hand, if enough new voters and mail-in voters cast their ballots successfully for the Democrat, then Colorado could be the break-out state Obama can capture for a national win. Silver currently has Obama ahead slightly in both CO and MI, but both projections are well within the margin of error. It remains to be seen if he can improve upon those slim leads. Also, in a post from late last night, Silver points out the possibility of an electoral tie if McCain wins New Hampshire, which is still entirely possible.

At the end of the day, of course, the only poll that matters won't happen until November 4.

More McCain in Colorado

"I have to win here." John McCain on the Centennial State.

McCain's Frequent Colorado Visits

John McCain is making a whole lot of visits to Colorado these days. After a much publicized Denver town hall meeting three weeks ago, when a protester was removed from a walkway outside the event simply for carrying a sign that read "McCain=Bush," McCain returned to Colorado last Friday to address Latino veterans, blast Obama on foreign policy, and make a quick stop in Aspen to meet the Dalai Lama.

The Denver Post also reports that McCain will be back in the pivotal western state today, raising cash and rallying support.

So why is Colorado so popular for McCain? It could have something to do with Barack Obama's efforts to put traditionally red states in play. To be sure, Colorado is more of a purple state in recent years, and boasts a Democratic governor and a majority of Democrats at the state level. It could also be because Obama has one big campaign date here in the near future: August 25-28. The more time McCain can spend in Colorado without upsetting the city's status quo (little old librarian ladies aside), the more public support--especially among undecided voters--the Republican may be able to draw away from the convention.

Obama's popularity in Colorado--and especially in Denver--could actually take a hit depending on how much of a disruption the Democratic National Convention makes in people's daily lives. Furthermore, if business resulting from the convention is not as good as the projections, Denverites and Coloradans may be inclined to see that as a negative in the Obama hype column (though in fairness to the candidate, both the Dem National Committee and the city of Denver will have as much or more to do with that as the candidate and his campaign).

Never mind that it's apples to oranges. John McCain will be out on national TV reminding folks that he's been to Denver a dozen times this year and never tied up city streets or wreaked havoc for local businesses. Bottom line is, if people in Denver get frustrated during the convention, they might actually be inclined to buy into what they hear.