Who Won?

CBS News Poll: Biden 46%, Palin 21%

87%

CNN Poll: 87% believe Biden qualified to be VP, Palin 42%.
(And I've never understood how 129% of respondents could have an opinion.)

VP Debate Winner?

UPDATE: Uh oh. I fell into the trap. Turns out Biden didn't misspeak when he said "Bosniaks." (And not only am I ignorant on the correct classifications of the peoples of the earth, but I misspelled it below, too.)
__________

Forget everything you've read. Forget the spin. The debate didn't go to Joe Biden, despite his political acumen, his ability to connect, and his gravitas. And the debate certainly did not go to Sarah Palin, who exceeded expectations by showing not only her fire but her ability to compete, make compelling points, and connect with the American voter.

The big winner of tonight's debate is Barack Obama. I expect, barring any shocks, that we'll see another point or two--if not more--reflected in the polls by mid next week. On every point, on almost every question, Joe Biden brought it home for Barack Obama. He didn't attack Palin, and he didn't even egregiously attack McCain. Joe Biden brought the positive arguments for Barack Obama to the table. Those arguments resonated so clearly because of Biden's inside-out knowledge of all things Washington. Certainly, Biden spoke to his running mate's record effectively. But he did Obama the most good when he simply spoke about the issues of the day.

Where Sarah Palin spoke in eloquent generalities, Joe Biden offered specifics. Iraq? Barack Obama has a plan to end this war in 16 months. Health care? John McCain will give you $5,000 to go replace a $12,000 coverage plan. The Constitution? The Constitution clearly makes no exception to deny status to same-sex couples; furthermore, Article 1 of the Constitution clearly--clearly--puts the office of the Vice President under the auspices of the Executive Branch. Though so much more goes into the final tally, Barack Obama may have won the VP debate on that last point alone.

If Sarah Palin made an extraordinary gaffe tonight, it wasn't the one viewers expected. Anyone who saw the Couric interviews hoped like witnesses passing a car wreck to see something gory tonight. Alas, the Governor held her own. But she made the mistake of validating the deceptive and covert actions of the most unpopular and widely mistrusted Vice President in American history, and Joe Biden seized the moment to shed equivocation (not that he's much one for that) and state in no uncertain terms that the Constitution of the United States clearly sets the office of the Vice President under the jurisprudence of the Executive Branch. After nearly eight years of deceit, dishonor, and secrecy, this is something the American people very much needed to hear.

Excepting that, for a moment, Palin came off decently. The top of the debate began with two personalities very much in their element. While the stakes were extraordinarily high for both, neither of them wore the stress. Since the announcement of her status as running mate, Sarah Palin has been tasked, fairly or no, with winning this campaign for John McCain. Joe Biden meanwhile, with his history of running at the mouth, could have threatened Obama's current status as leader in the race. Neither VP candidate blew it. Palin was good, though a couple times she looked starkly lost. Biden, however, was great, though I'm pretty sure he said at one point "the central war in the front on terror." Not a major goof, but an indicator all the same that he was not perfect. (I also thought I heard Biden call the Bosnian people "Bosniacs," but there's no telling.)

The result is that McCain doesn't lose ground tonight, but Obama fortifies his position and really begins to open his lead. The deciding factor? Sarah Palin spoke to the people who already agreed with her. Joe Biden, I strongly believe, spoke to those who have not yet connected. And he landed it.

On the economy:

[I]t was two Mondays ago John McCain said at 9 o'clock in the morning that the fundamentals of the economy were strong. Two weeks before that, he said George -- we've made great economic progress under George Bush's policies.

Nine o'clock, the economy was strong. Eleven o'clock that same day, two Mondays ago, John McCain said that we have an economic crisis.

That doesn't make John McCain a bad guy, but it does point out he's out of touch. Those folks on the sidelines knew that two months ago.

On Iraq:

[W]ith all due respect, I didn't hear a plan. Barack Obama offered a clear plan. Shift responsibility to Iraqis over the next 16 months. Draw down our combat troops. Ironically the same plan that Maliki, the prime minister of Iraq and George Bush are now negotiating. The only odd man out here, only one left out is John McCain, number one. Number two, with regard to Barack Obama not quote funding the troops, John McCain voted the exact same way. John McCain voted against funding the troops because of an amendment he voted against had a timeline in it to draw down American troops. And John said I'm not going to fund the troops if in fact there's a time line. Barack Obama and I agree fully and completely on one thing. You've got to have a time line to draw down the troops and shift responsibility to the Iraqis.

. . . John McCain voted to cut off funding for the troops. Let me say that again. John McCain voted against an amendment containing $1 billion, $600 million that I had gotten to get MRAPS, those things that are protecting the governor's son and pray god my son and a lot of other sons and daughters.

He voted against it. He voted against funding because he said the amendment had a time line in it to end this war. He didn't like that.

On Iran:

The fact of the matter is, it surprises me that Senator McCain doesn't realize that Ahmadinejad does not control the security apparatus in Iran. The theocracy controls the security apparatus, number one.

Number two, five secretaries of state did say we should talk with and sit down.

Now, John and Governor Palin now say they're all for -- they have a passion, I think the phrase was, a passion for diplomacy and that we have to bring our friends and allies along.

Our friends and allies have been saying, Gwen, "Sit down. Talk. Talk. Talk." Our friends and allies have been saying that, five secretaries of state, three of them Republicans.

And John McCain has said he would go along with an agreement, but he wouldn't sit down. Now, how do you do that when you don't have your administration sit down and talk with the adversary?

And look what President Bush did. After five years, he finally sent a high-ranking diplomat to meet with the highest-ranking diplomats in Iran, in Europe, to try to work out an arrangement.

On Israel:

[N]o one in the United States Senate has been a better friend to Israel than Joe Biden. I would have never, ever joined this ticket were I not absolutely sure Barack Obama shared my passion.

Short and sweet, that clip, but Biden can literally make that claim and back it up.

On Afghanistan:

With Afghanistan, facts matter, Gwen.

The fact is that our commanding general in Afghanistan said today that a surge -- the surge principles used in Iraq will not -- well, let me say this again now -- our commanding general in Afghanistan said the surge principle in Iraq will not work in Afghanistan, not Joe Biden, our commanding general in Afghanistan.

He said we need more troops. We need government-building. We need to spend more money on the infrastructure in Afghanistan.

Look, we have spent more money -- we spend more money in three weeks on combat in Iraq than we spent on the entirety of the last seven years that we have been in Afghanistan building that country.

Let me say that again. Three weeks in Iraq; seven years, seven years or six-and-a-half years in Afghanistan. Now, that's number one.

Our allies are on that same page. And if we don't go the extra mile on diplomacy, what makes you think the allies are going to sit with us?

The last point I'll make, John McCain said as recently as a couple of weeks ago he wouldn't even sit down with the government of Spain, a NATO ally that has troops in Afghanistan with us now. I find that incredible.

On same-sex couples:

Do I support granting same-sex benefits? Absolutely positively. Look, in an Obama-Biden administration, there will be absolutely no distinction from a constitutional standpoint or a legal standpoint between a same-sex and a heterosexual couple.

The fact of the matter is that under the Constitution we should be granted -- same-sex couples should be able to have visitation rights in the hospitals, joint ownership of property, life insurance policies, et cetera.

On the office of the Vice President:

Vice President Cheney has been the most dangerous vice president we've had probably in American history. The idea he doesn't realize that Article I of the Constitution defines the role of the vice president of the United States, that's the Executive Branch. He works in the Executive Branch. He should understand that. Everyone should understand that.

And the primary role of the vice president of the United States of America is to support the president of the United States of America, give that president his or her best judgment when sought, and as vice president, to preside over the Senate, only in a time when in fact there's a tie vote. The Constitution is explicit.

The only authority the vice president has from the legislative standpoint is the vote, only when there is a tie vote. He has no authority relative to the Congress. The idea he's part of the Legislative Branch is a bizarre notion invented by Cheney to aggrandize the power of a unitary executive and look where it has gotten us. It has been very dangerous.

At each turn, on every point, in every clutch situation, Joe Biden looked entirely at ease. Perhaps that's because he's got 35 years under his belt of doing what he does. Maybe it's because he's at his absolute best when he's allowed the forum to communicate complex issues in comprehensible ways. And maybe it's because tonight, Joe Biden understood that the only way to lose the debate for his boss was to forget the issues and tuck into the character battles that have defined much of this campaign. Perhaps, and this may be most convincing of all, Biden won the debate for Obama because Biden's character--and therefore Obama's judgment--is most appreciable when discovered deep at the heart of American policy.

Transcript here.

Couric. Biden. Palin.

Wait a minute. Katie Couric interviewed Joe Biden? I never even heard. Maybe because Sarah Palin is sucking up all the oxygen.

(I swear, I'm done now. Maybe even until tomorrow.)

Candidate McCain vs. Senator McCain: John Kerry and Joe Biden Revitalize the Case Against McCain

Much has been made of the McCain campaign's ability to control the argument over the past four weeks. By going brazenly negative, Steve Schmidt & Co. banked on putting the high minded Democratic candidate for change on the defensive and against the ropes. The past month has seen Obama faced with three bad choices: pass on the negative attacks, explain himself in response to negative attacks, and launch similar, negative attacks.

Obama has passed through all three of these phases and weathered a substantial amount of the storm. Passing on the negative ads infuriates Democrats who fear another Swiftboating in the offing. Explaining himself in response to the ads only focuses the electorate on the original smear (and as the old adage goes, if you're explaining, you're losing). Launching negative ads tit-for-tat against negative ads leaves Camp Obama susceptible to (valid) arguments that the candidate for change is running the same old political campaign as every other Washington insider and White House hopeful.

Last night at the Pepsi Center, Obama's options changed. The most effective agent for change that I've heard this entire season took the stage in the form of John Kerry.

Maybe there's something about losing presidential races. As I listened to Kerry speak, I found myself enamored with his sensible lines and his graceful and commanding oratory--qualities I don't remember hearing from 2004 as much as I remember the wooden mannerisms before the camera and the dangerously imperious tone that defined Kerry's style. Just as Al Gore has enjoyed a popularity boost since losing the 2000 election, and as Hillary Clinton appears remarkably poised to fill large shoes in the Democratic party without winning the nomination, perhaps John Kerry found himself last night on the edge of something grand after surviving the abyss of disappointment. Whatever Kerry's role will be, he provided the assault that Barack Obama clearly needed against John McCain.

Kerry dissected McCain's remarkably inconsistent history on almost every issue McCain has ever expressed an opinion on by splitting McCain down the middle.

I have known and been friends with John McCain for almost 22 years. But every day now I learn something new about candidate McCain. To those who still believe in the myth of a maverick instead of the reality of a politician, I say, let's compare Senator McCain to candidate McCain.

By dividing the John McCain who's been in public office these past 26 years and highlighting the John McCain who's running for the presidency, John Kerry tapped the potential to point out all McCain's ridiculous flip flops without going negative.

Candidate McCain now supports the wartime tax cuts that Senator McCain once denounced as immoral. Candidate McCain criticizes Senator McCain's own climate change bill. Candidate McCain says he would now vote against the immigration bill that Senator McCain wrote. Are you kidding? Talk about being for it before you're against it.

Let me tell you, before he ever debates Barack Obama, John McCain should finish the debate with himself. And what's more, Senator McCain, who once railed against the smears of Karl Rove when he was the target, has morphed into candidate McCain who is using the same "Rove" tactics and the same "Rove" staff to repeat the same old politics of fear and smear. Well, not this year, not this time. The Rove-McCain tactics are old and outworn, and America will reject them in 2008.

This line between Senator McCain and Candidate McCain is one the Obama Camp and the DNC need to ride all the way to election day. It's a great rhetorical device, perhaps the slickest I've heard all year, from any camp. What's more, it cuts to the heart of the debate against John McCain: at the end of the day, his policies are empty and not a soul in the country knows where the supposed maverick stands on any single issue, except perhaps his desire to confront nations with might before diplomacy and to add to the ultra conservative ranks of the Supreme Court and overturn Roe v. Wade.

John Kerry did another thing last night that the Obama camp needed from a surrogate. He took away the McCain campaign's free ride on the patriotism bulldozer.

[T]he candidate who once promised a "contest of ideas," now has nothing left but personal attacks. How insulting to suggest that those who question the mission, question the troops. How pathetic to suggest that those who question a failed policy doubt America itself. How desperate to tell the son of a single mother who chose community service over money and privilege that he doesn't put America first.

. . . No one can question Barack Obama's patriotism. Like all of us, he was taught what it means to be an American by his family: his grandmother who worked on a bomber assembly line in World War II, his grandfather who marched in Patton's army, and his great uncle who enlisted in the army right out of high school at the height of the war. And on a spring day in 1945, he helped liberate one of the concentration camps at Buchenwald.

This election is a chance for America to tell the merchants of fear and division: you don't decide who loves this country; you don't decide who is a patriot; you don't decide whose service counts and whose doesn't.

Emphasis mine. These last lines were possibly the most powerful lines spoken all night, though several veterans and the wife of a Marine also spoke eloquently about Obama's commitment to the troops and to this country. John Kerry nailed it, though, because he didn't simply stand up for Obama, he stood up for every American. The Repulican party may choose to ignore that message during the campaign season, but the Democrats now have the language they need and the surrogates they can count on to stand up day after day and say "The Republican attack machine of Karl Rove and his disciples is telling America who counts and who doesn't. A whole nation of independent and proud Americans is going to see right through that tactic come election day."

Joe Biden took his turn last night, of course. While I generally think Biden is a much better speaker off the cuff than from prepared remarks, and while I think his speech fell flat last night compared to some of the others we've heard through the convention, Biden did his share to level the playing field as well. Last night, Joe Biden took the following message to the country: "The choice in this election is clear. These times require more than a good soldier; they require a wise leader."

This will be an important point to watch in the development of the Obama/Biden campaign. Quietly, Joe Biden just took John McCain's single most understood strength and flatly said it's not enough. Karl Rove is known for saying that the strength is the target. Take away a candidate's perceived strength, and all that's left to focus on are the weaknesses. Joe Biden effectively said that John McCain is a patriot and a hero, and has suffered terribly for love of country. But frankly, that doesn't make a president.

Look for the Obama camp to role out the ads featuring all McCain's antics and temper tantrums, and then quietly reiterate these lines that Biden and Kerry drew last night. And, of course, let's not forget Bill Clinton, who electrified the crowds, delivered a hell of a great speech, and gave me goosebumps when he urged us all to remember that the world has always been "more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power." Maybe an ad featuring John McCain's "bomb Iran" jig, followed by a dark screen with Clinton's simple quote and a stamp from the Obama/Biden '08 committee, would go over well among the undecideds.

The beauty of the coming months may just reveal that John McCain brings enough of his own negativity to the mix that Obama doesn't have to go negative to attack the guy.