Challenging Specter

So Arlen Specter switched parties. Have Democrats been too quick to get behind their newest senator?

Steve Benen offers some key insights as to why Specter might not be the team player Dems hoped to recruit. Which begs the question: Should the DNC and the DSCC necessarily rally behind the incumbent Specter?

It bears noting that, while Specter's switch certainly doesn't hurt the Democratic Party, it may not actually help the party all that much either. In the end, Specter's switch is determined from pure political survivalism. In other words, Senator Specter (D-PA) is good for Senator Specter. You don't get to be 79-years-old and one of the most senior members of the Senate by counting on others to have your best interests at stake, y'know?

With all that in mind, Nate Silver looks at Joe Sestak, Specter's most likely challenger (as of today) in a 2010 Dem primary. Progressives will be disappointed, because Sestak sounds like a candidate for the newly minted "ConservaDem" party. But still, there are some distinct advantages to not giving Arlen Specter a free ride. A little heat, Silver points out, could force the incumbent senator to vote with the president's agenda a little more often than Specter feels inclined to, so far.

If it's About the Supreme Court, Then Specter Matters

I've been reading all week about whether or not the Specter switch is that big of a deal. Matthew Yglesias suggests that, in regard to the Souter announcement, Specter as Democrat really is a big deal because the switch covers a lot of ground on the partisan hackometer. See, if Specter has to run against a hardcore conservative challenger in the 2010 GOP primary, then the senator will come out against anybody Obama nominates. But since the switch, Specter is actually in danger of inviting a Democratic primary challenger if he doesn't toe the party line on this one. Pretty interesting math.