28 September 2008

FiveThirtyEight: Udall Pulling Ahead

In a bit of sunny news for Mark Udall, the boys at FiveThirtyEight.com have moved the Colorado senate race from "Leans Democratic" to "Likely Democratic." You can see the map here, Colorado showing light blue. And here's today's Senate Scorecard, which I'm just going to borrow from Nate Silver and hope he doesn't mind. (I saw him do this the other day, so I figure it's okay.)

I'd be curious to see a quick set of poll results on the nationally televised debate that featured Udall and Schaffer this morning. Schaffer has steadily closed what was a sizeable gap, but he can't quite seal the deal, and now the numbers are going the other way again. My sense is that the farther this race slips away from the GOP, the uglier it's still going to get. That, in turn, may just turn some undecideds off Schaffer. I can't imagine many people are impressed by the Wadhams campaign style, but you never know. My heart goes out to Udall's family, who had to sit by and watch the hatchetwork this morning. But at least maybe they'll see this info and get a good smile out of the day yet.