"Todo Bien": All is Well (Not Really)

Disclaimer: My ability to collect accurate information is severely limited by my language skills. The following is offered as observation, and is solely intended to represent my impressions of the ongoing conflict in Oaxaca.

Oaxaca is quiet in the days following the first day of celebration of the Guelaguetza, a festival held annually on the last two Mondays of July. The governor, Ulises Ruiz, appeared triumphant on every television in the state, and the majority of major newspapers in Oaxaca declared that the celebration went off without incident, glossing over references to the protest march held on Monday morning and the two police officers who were briefly taken hostage Monday before being released.

Everybody I speak with here agrees that the current political situation in Oaxaca is difficult to understand, and most don't doubt that this is due in part to efforts by the government to obscure facts, manipulate the press (which is often happy to oblige) and sow disinformation and outright lies in the face of mounting public pressure for political change. Ricardo Aleman's column in yesterday's El Universal (sorry, no link available at this time), a national paper out of Mexico City, suggests--I think--that clumsy governance in the state of Oaxaca may well become a significant problem for Mexico and the administration of President Felipe Calderon.

Oaxacans agree that something has to change, but it's difficult to get a clear sense of what. APPO leaders and activists continue to call first and foremost for the removal of Governor Ruiz from power, which the government finds inflammatory and to which it responds with a very heavy hand. For it's part the government has a history of human rights violations and allegedly continues to violate the rights of the citizens of Oaxaca by going to great lengths to silence dissent. Both sides appear stolid and unwilling to back down.

While the governor may be confident enough to get on television and tell the state and the country that Oaxaca is "Todo bien," or "All good," it is evident that the tension here will not simply go away with a few hopeful words. Nobody can say for sure what will happen next, but I don't get the sense that anyone here believes this conflict is near resolution.