Juan Cole on Tehran

Juan Cole offers fresh air on Iran:

Polling shows that the percentage of Americans who view Iran as the number one threat to the United States has risen to 27 percent now. I think it was only 20 percent in December 2006. First of all, how in the world can a developing country with about a fourth of the population of the US, about a $2000 per capita income (in real terms, not local purchasing power), with no intercontinental ballistic missiles, with no weapons of mass destruction (and no proof positive it is trying to get them), with a small army and a small military budget-- how is such a country a "threat" to the United States of America? Iranian leaders don't like the US, and they talk dirty about the US, and they do attempt to thwart US interests. The same is true of Venezuela under Chavez. But Tehran is a minor player on the world stage, and trying to build it up to replace the Soviet Union is just the worst sort of fear-mongering, and it is being done on behalf of the US military industrial complex, which wants to do to Iran what it did to Iraq. It is propaganda, and significant numbers of Americans (a 7 percent increase would be like 21 million people!) are buying it. (Emphasis mine)

Cole points out that, whether Iran is a credible threat or not, 21 million more Americans perceive Iran as the cardinal threat to American security than did just six months ago. I don't know how big a threat Iran really presents behind all the bluster. No one wants to see the country with a nuclear weapon, and yet I keep wondering if the country's nuclear pursuit isn't a martyr's game. Ahmadenijad has a great opportunity to gain the appearance of clout when there's a Dick Cheney across the ocean who is endlessly willing to validate the little man's insane posturing. In the meantime, wouldn't it be a kick if Tehran really was interested in nuclear energy (I'm not sure I believe this, but it's worth stopping to consider) and actually wanted Americans to blow our wad in an effort to disprove that peaceful pursuit was the order of the day. We'd go in, raise a bunch of dust, find no evidence of nuclear weapons development, and at the end of the day have nothing but George Bush's word that it was the right thing to do. Sound familiar?

As for Islamic extremists, the best they can hope for is to draw American forces yet further into the Middle East. They don't have to come to us because we're only too eager to come to them. If this is what's driving Iran, then shouldn't America just slow down? By this I mean we don't necessarily need our leaders to respond to sabre rattling with more of the same, and we don't need our media outlets to hard-sell us more hype and fear. As much now as ever before, we need thoughtfulness and cool-headedness, not to mention sound intelligence, as America assesses and approaches the Iranian problem.